2026 Perspectives for the Public Sector

Bridging the divide between developed and emerging market energy needs also presents opportunities. Technology transfer mechanisms, where innovations from developed markets are adapted and deployed in emerging contexts, can create shared value. Similarly, global collaborations on R&D for next- generation energy technologies, potentially co- funded by defense and development budgets, could accelerate breakthroughs for universal application. Put these dynamics together and a clear picture merges: development finance is no longer about abstract goals. It is about strategy. Is This a False Narrative? The consequences for developing countries are complex. On the one hand, the shift to strategic finance brings new opportunities. Countries rich in critical minerals or geographically pivotal in shipping and data routes, are in high demand. They can leverage this to negotiate better terms and attract more capital. On the other hand, the distribution of finance is skewing heavily toward countries that matter geopolitically. Nations without minerals, bases or strategic waterways risk being left behind. A humanitarian crisis in Haiti or Sudan may attract headlines (maybe), but it does not command the same financing firepower as lithium in the DRC or ports in the Philippines. Development priorities are being re-shuffled. Instead of education and health, the new priorities are energy resilience, infrastructure corridors, and supply chain security. All of this raises a provocative question: is this really a transformation or are we simply acknowledging what has always been true? Has development finance ever truly been altruistic? During the Cold War, aid was often tied to keeping countries in the Western or Soviet camp. The Marshall Plan, the archetype of development assistance, was as much about securing Europe for capitalism as it was about rebuilding war-torn Europe. Even the era of the Millenium Development Goals, often described as the high point of multilateralism, coincided with post-9/11 stabilization agendas in Afghanistan, Iraq and fragile states across Africa. We are told that development finance is changing — that defense spending, declining ODA and energy security have re-defined its mission. That may be true. But before we mourn the passing of selfless foreign aid, we must ask: did it ever exist in the first place? Was development finance ever really about development — or has it always, in one form or another, been about strategy. 40 Changing Dynamics of Development Finance