Citi Global Wealth Investments At a Glance Summary
Opportunities on the Horizon: Investing Through a Slowing Economy AT A GLANCE OUR EXPECTATIONS ■ US real GDP growth: +1% in 2023, +1.4% in 2024 ■ Rolling recessions across US sectors, below trend global GDP growth of +2.5% and 2.4% in 2023 and 2024 ■ US CPI inflation to decline to 3.5% by end-2023, 2.5% by end 2024 ■ Fed to start cutting interest rates in 4Q 202 3 ■ The US dollar has peaked, weaker USD over the next few years Citi Global Wealth Investments BUILDING DYNAMIC PORTFOLIOS While our asset allocation strategy remains defensive, investors should consider staying invested and modify portfolios over time. ■ The bear market is not yet over. It’s too soon to price in a recovery ■ Today we favor quality, such as longer-duration bonds and investment-grade corporate or municipal bonds that could offset potential credit spread widening — see As a decade of dollar dominance ends, currencies will drive returns ■ Likewise, we also favor defensive equities, with an emphasis on dividend growers and companies with strong balance sheets ■ Some small- and mid-sized firms in the US and some emerging markets are becoming undervalued ■ We’re overweight US government issues and investment-grade corporate bonds ■ While there will be periodic rallies, we see a weaker US dollar ahead, making currency diversification more important ■ A weaker USD creates value potential in non-USD investments, including non-US equities and unhedged bonds All forecasts are expressions of opinion, are subject to change without notice and are not intended to be a guarantee of future events. AVS GLOBAL USD RISK LEVEL 3 PORTFOLIO Asset Class Strategic (%) 1 Tactical (%) 2 Active (%) 3 CASH 2.0 1.0 -1.0 FIXED INCOME 38.1 40.1 2.0 Developed Investment Grade 31.7 34.0 2.3 Developed High Yield 3.2 1.7 -1.5 Emerging Market Debt 3.2 2.4 -0.8 Thematic Fixed Income 0.0 2.0 2.0 EQUITIES 59.9 58.9 -1.0 Developed Equities 51.3 46.7 -4.6 Developed Large Cap Equities 44.7 45.0 0.4 Developed Small/Mid Cap Equities 6.6 1.6 -5.0 Emerging All Cap Equities 8.6 11.2 2.6 Thematic Equities 0.0 1.0 1.0 COMMODITIES 0.0 0.0 0.0 TOTAL 100.0 100.0 0.0 1 Strategic = Our 10 Year benchmark. 2 Tactical = Our 12-18Month view. 3 Active = the difference between tactical and strategic allocations. Minor differences may result due to rounding. Source: Citi Global Wealth Investments as of 18May 2023. The performance of the AVS Global USD Risk Level 3 and the cash-heavy portfolio was calculated on an asset class level using indices to proxy for each asset class. Net performance results for both portfolios reflect a deduction of 2.5%maximum fee that can be charged in connection with advisory services that covers advisory fees and transaction costs. Individuals cannot directly invest in an index. The performance is for illustrative purposes only. These are preliminary asset allocations for 2023. All performance information shown above is hypothetical, not the actual performance of any client account . Hypothetical information reflects the application of a model methodology and selection of securities in hindsight . No hypothetical record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, there are numerous factors related to the equities, fixed income or commodities markets in general which cannot be and have not been accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance information, all of which can affect actual performance. The returns shown above are for indices and do not represent the result of actual trading of investable assets/securities. The asset classes used to populate the allocation model may underperform their respective indices and lead to lower performance than the model anticipates. INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT FDIC INSURED • NOT CDIC INSURED • NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED • NO BANK GUARANTEE • MAY LOSE VALUE
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